Pricewatch l 13 Jul 2023 I Gas Matters Today

European gas markets continued falling on Wednesday as supplies from Norway are set to increase and high stock levels continued to determine the market trend.

The downtrend continued for the third day in a row on increasing supplies from Norway and high stock levels as Europe remains on track to reach storage filling targets ahead of the upcoming winter.

Shell confirmed on Wednesday that it was preparing to restart the Nyhamna gas processing plant in Norway as planned, on 15 July. As a result, TTF extended its slide, falling 7.2% to USD 8.68/MMBtu.

NBP traded at USD 8.32/MMBtu, down 7.5%, while JKM remained relatively flat, down 0.4% settling at USD 11.98/MMBtu.

Meanwhile, EU stocks were over 80% full as of 11 July, compared with being 62% full exactly one year ago, Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data revealed.

“The boost in gas storage will help close the gap between supply and demand for this winter, assuming the EU can also source additional LNG supplies like it did last year and keep energy demand in check,” Moody’s said in a report, adding that the milder weather seen in Europe so far contributed to ~10% of the improved situation.

In the US, the Henry Hub returned to downtrend on Wednesday, falling by 3.6% to USD 2.63/MMBtu. The pullback was due to a shift in focus on cooler weather forecasts – albeit not everywhere. The ongoing Texas heatwave has resulted in new record power usage, hitting a preliminary 81,351 MW at 6 pm CST, topping the grid's previous record of 80,828 MW set on 27 June, the state’s power grid operator reported.

Crude prices settled higher on Wednesday, with benchmark Brent futures breaching USD 80/barrel for the first time since May, after US inflation data spurred hopes the Federal Reserve may have fewer interest rate hikes in store, Reuters reported.

Brent rose 0.9% to USD 80.11/barrel and WTI was up 1.2% to USD 75.75/barrel.

Front-month futures and indexes at last close with day-on-day changes (click to enlarge): Time references based on London GMT. Brent, WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.