European gas prices continued to fall on Tuesday, with the front-month TTF contract falling to its lowest in over a month.
Mild weather forecasts in most of the continent combined with an overall healthy supply picture led the decline, despite signs of higher LNG demand in Asia, Energi Danmark said in its morning report.
Natural gas supplies from Norway are continuing to edge higher, with the giant Troll field returning on Thursday to full capacity after extended seasonal works.
TTF’s front-month contract was 3.9% lower and settled at USD 9.36/MMBtu, its lowest since the beginning of June. NBP settled 3.6% lower at USD 9.10/MMBtu.
Commenting on the factors driving the prices as of lately, Cedigaz said in its Q2 report that three main factors contributed to weighing down prices in Europe: a sharp reduction in consumption, high stock levels and the growth in LNG imports.
It added: “According to Cedigaz, gas consumption in the EU fell by 16% in Q2 of 2023 compared with the historical average. Gas consumption in the industrial sector was the hardest hit, against a backdrop of high prices and economic slowdown. As a result, gas supply has remained abundant in Europe, and stocks are around 80% full at 82 bcm, which is 30% higher than the 2017-2021 average.”
Meanwhile, JKM held steady which helped maintain its premium over TTF. The benchmark fell 0.3% to USD 12.02/MMBtu.
This is the second-consecutive week of little to no movement for the Asian LNG marker, as some summer demand kept prices from sliding in an overall tepid market.
In the US, the Henry Hub rose on Tuesday, up 2.3% to USD 2.73/MMBtu, supported by a dip in production and forecasts for increasing national heat.
Oil saw a consolidation on Tuesday too. Brent rose 2.2% to USD 79.4/barrel and WTI was up 2.5% to USD 74.83/barrel. According to Reuters, this was driven by a falling US dollar, hopes for higher demand in the developing world and supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters.
Front-month futures and indexes at last close with day-on-day changes (click to enlarge): 
Time references based on London GMT. Brent, WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.
